Halloween is upon us. The kids will soon be eating an elephant’s body weight in fun size Mars and Snickers. If there’s a Galaxy Caramel or a Curly Wurly knocking about, I’m not above craftily sneaking one from a poorly attended basket.
Here at ZeroAvia, it’s caused us to cast our minds to the topic of ghost flights. Spooky!
According to data from the CAA, in the first half of 2023, there were 104 flights with zero passengers. That’s a whole lot of empty seats. You can almost hear The Specials’ seminal hit playing as the camera pans from empty row to empty row. It sounds a bit mad, but it’s unfortunately a necessary evil of operating. Airlines need to reposition aircraft regularly, and there are some operations designed to preserve in demand slots. In both cases planes need to fly empty or close to empty. At 200 flights or so per year, the true ghost flight is a tiny fraction.
What should warrant more attention though is not quite the ghost flights, but those that are drastically under capacity. There were 80,000 flight operations in the UK in the first half of the year that were at below 50% load factor. This accounts for more than 10% of total flights.
Of course, a half empty aircraft will burn less fuel, but each flight means significant carbon emissions. This may become harder to justify when carbon pricing begins to hit operators.
Thinking about the increased CO2 per passenger for flights operating so far under capacity should be enough to make you scream! Plus, the noise and air quality impacts that are unavoidable from these operations could also give you a fright. If and when we can fly in the UK using new clean engine technology – such as fuel cell propulsion – we’ll all be able to get out from behind the sofa!
The Jet Zero Strategy targets 2040 for net zero domestic flight, but aircraft capable of traversing the length and breadth of the British Isles fuelled by sunlight and water will be available well within the decade.
It might mean some airline operators look at their fleet and downsize some aircraft on certain routes, with a renaissance in regional turboprops powering green domestic flight. While the above is a simple picture and does not account for the fluctuation in demand in special circumstances, it shows there will certainly be room for smaller aircraft to operate some routes.
For passengers, there will be great relief in knowing that airlines are looking to minimise emissions per passenger by flying with zero-emission technology, and optimising any fuel that is burned on other flights by keeping aircraft capacity high. It would be galling for passengers to understand that their ticket price is higher thanks to the carbon footprint of the ghosts in a sea of empty rows on their flights.
The future doesn’t have to be ghastly for the aviation industry. Let’s make sure there’s less trick, and more treat!
