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Advancing Hydrogen Flight
Perhaps ironically, as we exited winter and into one of the hottest Springs on record across much of the northern hemisphere (and the driest in 50 years in the UK), many of the hydrogen detractariat (detractor + commentariat) gleefully predicted a hydrogen winter. They had ammunition. A leak identified Airbus pushing back its timeline on hydrogen aviation, with some dominoes falling in line such as Tier 1 suppliers like GKN also slowing down or scaling back.
But, this tide started to meaningfully turn when Airbus revealed a striking evolution of its ZEROe concept in April, with four distributed electric engines powered by hydrogen fuel cells and carrying up to 100 people.
In recent weeks, three powerful industry reports have bolstered the case for investing in a transition to hydrogen aviation. Serendipitously, major industry moves – Airbus’s partnering with MTU, Boeing filing hydrogen aircraft IP, Joby flying a novel hydrogen UAV for nine hours straight – have coincided with these studies, injecting a renewed sense of optimism. So, what exactly did these reports say?
In the build up to Paris Air Show, economic consulting firm Fathom Consulting produced an exceptional analysis of Europe’s options in decarbonising aviation and the relative cost of each. The report, entitled Europe’s Flightpath to Economic Competitiveness finds that “hydrogen-powered aircraft represent a once-in-a-generation industrial opportunity for Europe.”
According to the report, waste-based sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), the main focus of policies like ReFuelEU and the UK SAF Mandate, have only limited potential due to issues of scalability, creating a jaw dropping spiral of marginal cost (see graph). Hydrogen-powered zero-emission flight has scope both to address aviation decarbonisation and offer positive spillovers from the R&D to the wider economy and other sectors. Examples of these include benefit from innovations, expertise and improved standards, facilitated by technology transfer, movement of skilled engineers and scientists, supplier innovation and adoption of aerospace-grade practices. The report laments that this, however, appears to be underexplored as a policy option, raising questions for DG MOVE, UK DfT and colleagues in other departments and member states.
Of note, the nearest competitor in terms of positive economic case to hydrogen, zero-emission flight is Power-to-Liquid SAF, which can support narrowbody and widebody aircraft much sooner than hydrogen fuel cell use (drop-in potential). Perhaps this raises questions about whether sub mandates here need to increase, but it definitely should increase the urgency to scale green hydrogen production to support both direct aircraft fuel use and PtL SAF production. The key findings in Fathom’s report are reached by drawing on a model which directly compares the costs and benefits of zero-emission flight (largely focused on hydrogen as the technology) and different types of SAF, relative to fossil kerosene, under different scenarios.
Next, and moving across the Channel, Green Alliance’s latest aviation report looks at how the UK can do just as the Fathom Consulting report advises and seize the initiative in establishing the UK as a leader in zero emission aviation.
“The prize for the UK is huge if it can pioneer hydrogen powered flight,” write the authors, “with a potential increase in the economic contribution of the sector to £37 billion gross value added by 2050, up from £11 billion in 2023”, referencing Aerospace Technology Institute projections.
Among the report’s recommendations, Green Alliance calls on the Government to set a target for 50 percent of domestic flights on zero-emission aircraft by 2040, establish specific routes (pinpointing a tri-nation Belfast, Glasgow, Bristol route as of particular interest) and to require airports to update their five year masterplans to incorporate hydrogen infrastructure. Amen to that!
These calls are needed according to another recent report by Cleantech UK – Cleared for Take-off: Unlocking Cleantech Innovation in UK Aviation. According to the report, the UK risks over-relying on SAF at the expense of long-term competitiveness in hydrogen propulsion, electric flight and novel airframes, areas where leadership is still within reach. The report analyses investment in various decarbonisation strategies and sees funding for novel aircraft and propulsion falling in the last couple of years.
Cleantech UK call for targeted intervention to support near-term demonstration and deployment and recommends policies that will bridge the funding gap for UK cleantech aviation innovators. It also suggests steps for the CAA to accelerate next-generation aircraft certification through regulatory innovation, and, in step with Green Alliance, calls for links between airport expansion plans and establishment of zero-emission infrastructure.
Further, the report calls for UK Government procurement to play a role in stimulating demand, using avenues as armed forces aerial logistics, medical transport and regional mobility (PSOs). With interest in hydrogen-electric propulsion systems’ defence-relevant capabilities (more in a coming blog post) and also in the expanding range of air applications we are seeing (see our partnerships with Piasecki and Horizon Aircraft, for example), now is the time to explore this, and we welcome the report flagging this and other measures.
So returning to the detractariat, it is important to respond and direct everybody’s attention back to the first principles. Hydrogen is not just a pathway to aviation decarbonisation, it is the primary pathway, and using it direct to power zero-emission flight aircraft has more than environmental rationale – it will also deliver economically.
Explore these reports and get in touch to let us know your thoughts. You can also read more on ZeroAvia’s recent news here, and explore our electric propulsion technology in more detail here.
