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The aviation industry is at a critical juncture in its history. As the time shortens between the present and the goal of net zero by 2050, this year will be crucial for decisive global action. Aviation already accounts for around 2.5% of global CO2 emissions, and when non-CO2 effects are included, its contribution to climate warming increases to approximately 4%. By 2050, as other sectors decarbonize and air traffic increases, that number could increase to 22%. Hydrogen fuel cells combined with electric engine technology currently offer the only viable and scalable solution to drastically reduce carbon emissions and environmental harm, whilst also lowering operational costs. In 2025, efforts to leverage the potential of hydrogen fuel in this sector will increase. This post outlines four key areas that require focused attention to ensure their success.
To support the adoption of hydrogen aviation, robust infrastructure is essential both upstream to scale-up production of low-cost, clean hydrogen, and also at airport locations to enable safe and cost effective storage and refueling infrastructure.
Longer term, investment in pipelines will be important to scale for the hydrogen demand required at large airports and to support narrowbody aircraft. In the early stages, in part to build the case for investing in delivery logistics networks and hydrogen pipelines to airports we need to see the starter infrastructure in place to enable the first commercial operations over the next couple of years. This might mean connecting low-cost supply to airports by using road transport and effective storage at a handful of starter airports. In some cases, where access to affordable renewable electricity is possible, the first routes may be enabled by on-site production as well.
The first certified hydrogen aircraft and engines will catalyze further investment in R&D to enable scaling into larger aircraft which will bring a corresponding increase in demand for hydrogen. So, simultaneous progress this year on the fuel infrastructure and the certification of propulsion systems for retrofit can together begin the snowball effect, unlocking investment in efficient hydrogen logistics including pipelines, storage solutions, and transportation methods.
Moreover, integrating hydrogen infrastructure with existing energy systems and grid operations will be critical for widespread use. Several initiatives are already underway, with the International Energy Agency’s Hydrogen Production Projects Map on global operational and announced projects to produce low-emissions hydrogen showing substantial traction. Additional considerations for hydrogen infrastructure at airports will be needed to enable safe and seamless hydrogen-powered flight. A report by the World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company highlights that infrastructure planning must commence imminently, and that initial on-airport infrastructure must be in place by 2025. The clean energy required to support hydrogen demand for aviation is predicted to reach around 1,600 Twh at the upper limit by 2050 according to the WEF and McKinsey report and these numbers do not account for the energy needed for hydrogen production as part of power-to-synthetic fuel.
Across the globe, many airports are already preparing for a technology shift towards hydrogen, and just last year ZeroAvia and Airbus signed three respective Memoranda of Understanding with Canada’s three busiest airports to provide better understanding of hydrogen aircraft concept of operations, supply, infrastructure and refueling needs at airports. Many more projects are expected to commence in 2025 and will require supporting regulation and policy advances.
Standards groups, leading regulators and industry players have been highly active over the last couple of years, working to address gaps in the regulatory landscape for hydrogen as a fuel in aviation. We may not see the first hydrogen certifications for aircraft or engines in 2025, but we will see certification projects advance and the development of special conditions that will leverage the work of the standards groups to support a future harmonized approach. The regulatory understanding of best practice for certifying and regulating hydrogen aviation will deepen substantially.
In December 2024, the FAA released its Hydrogen-Fueled Aircraft Safety and Certification Roadmap, which outlines its strategy for safely introducing the design, development and operation of hydrogen-powered aircraft into the industry. The roadmap includes important information on certification readiness, the overarching guiding principles, existing standards and gaps, further safety research, collaboration needed and the associated timelines. This publication demonstrates that regulatory bodies are working to stay ahead of development, with significant work being planned for the next 5 years in anticipation of commercial hydrogen-propulsion systems prior to 2030. The UK’s CAA has been working on a Hydrogen Sandbox Challenge – in which ZeroAvia has participated – and this groundbreaking workstream will continue with a new round in the coming months.
Harmonizing these regulations across regions, countries and regulators will also facilitate international collaboration and trade, boosting the industry’s global reach. The FAA, CAA, and EASA have emphasized the need for increased collaboration among global regulators as well as other government agencies and industry stakeholders to be prepared for the coming uptake of hydrogen-propulsion systems into the market.
The current jet fuel market has been decades in the making and is well entrenched. While some detractors complain about supportive policies it is worth recognizing that jet fuel has enjoyed historic support and that the drop-in replacement SAF will ultimately require large subsidies due to its higher costs.
Hydrogen has the potential to drive economic growth, decarbonize numerous industries and provide energy and job security. It’s estimated that the hydrogen economy could provide 30 million jobs globally by 2050, whilst bringing in an annual revenue of more than $2.5 trillion. Aviation can be a major part of this, especially as, of all transport sectors, on a first principles basis, aviation is the most applicable for hydrogen. In fact, it will be essential if aviation is to make its net zero targets. Aviation is the most energy-intensive transport mode and the most sensitive to mass, making hydrogen’s properties the most suitable. Aviation has the least competition through other zero-emission pathways due to their various shortcomings. The sector’s energy demand is plannable and high, therefore creating significant offtake that can take H2 down the cost curve.
Plenty of major government initiatives are in place to support the supply of clean hydrogen, from the U.S Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which provides clean energy tax credits for renewable energy and green hydrogen production, as well as for fuel cell technology development, to the UK Government’s Hydrogen Strategy and Business Model support. A law in China that came into force on 1st January this year defines hydrogen’s role as an energy source as part of national legislation for the first time. With some of the largest energy producers and consumers introducing disruptive new legislation on hydrogen, other nations will be encouraged to do the same to establish a leadership position.
Challenges remain in delivering hydrogen aviation that require policy support. Scaling hydrogen propulsion technology for larger aircraft will require further R&D investment. Commitments to public-private partnerships such as the Aerospace Technology Institute (UK) and Clean Aviation (EU) funding are critical in this regard to build on the successes to date at pace. Ambitious programs such as that of the Japanese government towards hydrogen aviation are also to be welcomed.
While the long-term economic return for hydrogen aviation is clear, fleet transition will have costs for operators that are typically operating low margin businesses, so tax credits, incentives and mandates may be required to provide the necessary push to act. As we will see below, large investment into infrastructure may also need catalyzing government support. It will be interesting to see how policies supporting zero-emission and hydrogen aviation evolve over the next year in pursuit of wider net zero targets.
In order to meet net-zero emissions targets by 2050, the IEC estimates that an investment of $1.2 trillion in the hydrogen industry is needed by 2030, increasing to $10 trillion by 2050. This will include private equity/venture capital investments in fuel cell technology, as well as in hydrogen storage hubs and refueling infrastructure for example. Within this, it’s calculated that up to $1.7 trillion of capital expenditure will be necessary to enable alternative propulsion technologies (including both hydrogen and battery-electric) by 2050. Notably, 90% of this will be for off-airport infrastructure, including things like renewable power generation, power transmission and hydrogen transportation.
As government policies designed to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen production come into play, private investment in these areas is increasing. As highlighted in the Hydrogen Council/ Mckinsey & Co insights report, since 2021, investments in hydrogen have grown by a factor of 8 and total investments across project phases totaled $680 billion in 2024. The hydrogen industry harnesses substantial investment opportunity, with the fuel cell market alone projected to reach $28.95 billion by 2028. Yet, there is still a significant funding gap that will require critical mobilization and further government and industry support to facilitate both environmental and socio-economic gains worldwide.
Whilst it’s clear that meaningful progress is certainly underway to transform the aviation industry and significantly reduce the environmental impact, 2025 must be a year for thinking more ambitiously. Zero-emission technologies – using hydrogen and/or electrification – are the only path to economically accessible and sustainable growth of air transport, enabling greater connectivity and economic and cultural exchange. With advances in certification and the technology readiness of hydrogen-electric propulsion technologies, progression in infrastructure, regulation, policy and investment must match the pace to enable its commercial adoption.
